Research on the minimum radius of circular curves under low-speed driving conditions based on reliability analysis

This paper systematically explores the relationship between key design parameters and traffic safety in the context of low-speed road circular curve design by introducing reliability theory. A reliability function for the circular curve was constructed based on probability theory, and the reliability of circular curve radii at different design speeds was quantitatively analyzed using the First-Order Second-Moment Method (FOSM) and Monte Carlo Simulation. The results indicate that as the curve radius increases, the reliability improves significantly, and the failure probability decreases. This study provides new insights into safety assessment in road design and offers reliable references for optimizing road alignment design.