Film Scheduling Strategy Optimization: The Introduction of Squeeze and Stopping Point Model for Movie Box Office Prediction

The 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic has caused a great impact on the Chinese film market. In recent years, the Chinese box office market has rebounded, but it has not recovered to the pre-epidemic level. Based on the box office data of 3791 Chinese movies from 2016 to 2023 provided by Maoyan Film, this paper proposes the concept of Film market Depression, identifies stopping points through stopping point analysis, and establishes a multiple regression model to explore the impact of competition. This study found that most stopping points occurred within two weeks of a movie's release, with new releases within three days likely to cause stopping points to reduce box office revenue, but high quality and popular movies suffered less revenue loss. This study innovatively analyzes the impact of dynamic competition on movie box office from a stopping point perspective. The research results show that the film market squeeze has a negative impact on the box office of the film, and the rational arrangement of films to reduce the negative impact of squeeze is helpful for the film to achieve better box office performance. The research results are helpful to optimize the arrangement strategy and promote the development of the Chinese film market.