Understanding Government Public Opinion: How Conspiracy Mentality and Policy Issue Concerns Shape Government Performance Evaluations

Abstract Citizens’ assessments of government performance are rooted in their judgement on how public policy responds to their concerns, a key element for a sustainable democracy. However, conspiracy mentality, where individuals believe in larger plans orchestrated by powerful entities or the government, may impact such judgement. To examine the antecedents to people’s assessment about how well the government responds to salient issues in society, this study examines the connection between citizens’ policy concerns, conspiracy mentality, and their assessment of government performance. Analyzing data from an original two-wave panel survey conducted in the United States using cross-sectional, lagged, and autoregressive causal ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models, the study shows that conspiracy mentality is positively related to policy issue concerns, while policy issue concerns are negatively associated with the perception of government performance. Importantly, policy issues concerns significantly mediated this relationship. Individuals with higher levels of conspiracy mentality are more likely to have issue concerns that ultimately shape their negative views on how well the government addresses important problems in society.