MaxEnt-Based Habitat Suitability Assessment for Vaccinium mandarinorum: Exploring Industrial Cultivation Opportunities

Vaccinium mandarinorum Diels, a wild blueberry species distributed in the south of the Yangtze River in China, holds significant ecological and commercial value. Understanding its potential distribution and response to climate change is crucial for effective resource utilization and scientific introduction. By using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, we evaluated V. mandarinorum’s potential distribution under current (1970–2000) and future climate change scenarios (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) based on 216 modern distribution records and seven bioclimatic variables. The results showed that the MaxEnt model could effectively simulate the historical distribution and suitability degree of V. mandarinorum. The top two major environmental variables were precipitation of the driest quarter and annual precipitation, considering their contribution rates of 61.3% and 23.4%, respectively. Currently, the high suitability areas were mainly concentrated in central and northern Jiangxi province, central and southern Zhejiang province, southern Anhui province, central and northern Fujian province, and the border areas of Hunan and Guangxi provinces, covering 21.5% of the total suitable area. Future projections indicate that habitat will shift to higher latitudes and altitudes and that habitat quality will decline. Strategies are required to protect current V. mandarinorum populations and their habitats. The study results could provide an important theoretical reference for the optimization of planting distribution and ensure the sustainable production of the blueberry industry.