Temporal and Spatial Variation in Habitat Quality in Guangxi Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

Despite Guangxi’s unique ecological diversity and its important role in land-based ecological security and conservation, research on the assessment and prediction of its habitat quality under the influences of rapid urbanization and environmental pressures remains limited. This study systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use and habitat quality in Guangxi from 2000 to 2020 using the PLUS-InVEST model and simulates future scenarios for 2030. These scenarios include the Natural Development (ND) scenario, Urban Development (UD) scenario, and Cropland and Ecological Protection (CE) scenario. The results indicate the following: (1) Over the past two decades, rapid urban and construction land expansions in Guangxi intensified their negative impact on habitat degradation. Additionally, the disproportionate change between rural settlement land and rural population warrants attention. (2) Although ecological restoration measures have played a positive role in mitigating habitat degradation, their effects have been insufficient to counterbalance the negative impacts of construction land expansion, highlighting the need for balanced land use planning and urbanization policies. (3) The expansion of rural residential areas had a greater impact on regional habitat quality degradation than urban and infrastructure expansion. Moderate urbanization may contribute to habitat quality improvement. (4) The CE scenario shows the most significant improvement in habitat quality (an increase of 0.13%), followed by the UD scenario, which alleviates habitat degradation by reducing pressure on rural land. In contrast, the ND scenario predicts further declines in habitat quality. Furthermore, land use planning, restoration measures, and sustainable development policies are key factors influencing habitat quality changes. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating land use strategies with ecological restoration measures to balance economic growth and biodiversity conservation, especially in rapidly urbanizing regions.