An Exploration of Groundwater Resource Ecosystem Service Sustainability: A System Dynamics Case Study in Texas, USA

Groundwater, a crucial natural resource on a global scale, plays a significant role in Texas, impacting various essential ecosystem services either directly or indirectly. Despite efforts of state- and community-level regulations and conservation efforts, there is an ongoing trend of declining groundwater levels in the state of Texas. In this study, we utilized the systems thinking and system dynamics modeling approach to better understand this problem and investigate possible leverage points to achieve more sustainable groundwater resource levels. After conceptualizing a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the underlying feedback structure of the issue (informed by the existing literature), a small system dynamics (SD) model was developed to connect the feedback factors identified in the CLD to the stocks (groundwater level) and flows (recharge rate and groundwater pumping) that steer the behaviors of groundwater systems across time. After completing model assessment, experimental simulations were conducted to evaluate the current state relative to simulated treatments for improved irrigation efficiency, restricted pumping rates, cooperative conservation protocols among users, and combination strategy (of all treatments above) in the long-term. Results showed that groundwater stress (and the associated repercussions on related ecosystem service) could be alleviated with a combination strategy, albeit without complete groundwater level recovery.