Evolving Trends and Future Demands in ENT Procedures: A Nationwide 10-Year Analysis

<b>Objective</b>: This study aims to investigate the trends in otology, rhinology, and head and neck (H&N) operations over the past decade in England. These trends will allow for predictive modelling to forecast the demand over the coming years to aid workforce and resource planning in ENT. <b>Methods</b>: Hospital Episode Statistics data were extracted between April 2012 and April 2023. A total of 121 otology, 114 rhinology, and 122 H&N procedure codes were included. Correlation and linear regression analyses were conducted to examine trends and produce a forecast model for the volume of operations. <b>Results</b>: A gradual upward trend in the volume of operations was observed in rhinology, with a positive correlation coefficient (R = 0.74). In contrast, otology (R = -0.67) and H&N (R= -0.75) showed negative trends, indicating a moderate decline in operational volumes over time. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted operating activity in rhinology and otology. To address the backlog and reach the pre-pandemic forecasted levels within the next five years, surgical capacity must increase by an additional 33,807 rhinology 25,486 otology, and 10,300 head procedures per year in England. <b>Conclusions</b>: This analysis highlights a need for prioritization and expansion of the ENT workforce and resources to manage the current backlog and anticipated increase in demand over the next five years.