Four decades of population expansion and shrinkage across Chinese cities

Based on the latest three Chinese censuses and the population prediction model, we use four cartograms to reveal the population expansion and shrinkage across the prefecture-level cities in mainland China from 2000 to 2040. The cartograms demonstrate a difference in the spatial distribution of cities that expand and shrink in four decades. Especially, the cartograms reveal that the proportions of cities with shrinking populations in these four decades are 29%, 44%, 77%, and 88%, respectively, suggesting that Chinese policymakers need to adjust the former urban development strategies that prioritize population expansion.