Heat Wave and Drought Trends in the Northeast of Brazil and their Impact on Sugarcane, Corn and Soybean Production

Objectives: This study sought to analyze the trends of heat waves and droughts in Northeastern Brazil and their impacts on agricultural production of sugarcane, corn and soybeans, with emphasis on water scarcity. Theoretical Framework: It was based on studies about climate change and its effects on agriculture, highlighting indices such as the SPI and CTX90pct for the analysis of drought and heat waves. Method: The standard precipitation index (SPI) and regression models were used to correlate climate data with time series of agricultural production, as well as descriptive statistical analyzes. Results and Discussion: We identified periods of extreme drought, increased frequency of heat waves, and significant falls in agricultural productivity. Technological practices, such as advanced irrigation, have shown promise in mitigating these impacts. Implications of Research: It contributes to the understanding of the relations between climate change and agriculture, assisting in the formulation of adaptation and mitigation strategies. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by the originality of its research, either by the innovative approach in the integrated analysis of heat waves and droughts in the Northeast of Brazil, or by the new discoveries related to the correlation between extreme climatic events and agricultural productivity. The relevance and value of this research is evidenced by demonstrating that the adoption of advanced irrigation technologies can mitigate the impacts of climate change on the production of sugarcane, corn and soybeans, offering subsidies for the development of adaptive strategies and greater sustainability in agriculture in the region.