La dinámica del endeudamiento externo argentino y el rol de los grupos económicos en la demanda de divisas, 2015-2022

This work focuses on the central role that local economic groups played in the demand for foreign exchange in the period 2020-2022 and how this conditioned the accumulation of reserves - and thus economic policy - during the A. Fernández government (2019-2023) in Argentina. To accomplish this task, this study examines the main milestones of private debt in Argentina since 1976 and its relationship with public debt. Particular attention is paid to the administration of M. Macri (2015-2019) and the subsequent evolution of debt sustainability. Using the database of large companies (economic elite) collected by the FLACSO's Economy and Technology Division and the creation of a new database on the issuance of negotiable debt securities based on information from the National Securities Commission, we analyze the importance of large local economic groups in borrowing in the period 2015-2022 and the demand for foreign exchange in the period 2020-2022. One of the main conclusions of the paper is that in the context of the dollar shortage (2020-2022), the national government has allowed the cancellation of external obligations by the non-financial private sector, which has further influenced macroeconomic policies during this period. This was mainly a result of the local economic groups' strategy.