The effect of coal mine closures on worker migration in Poland: an input-output analysis

Closing coal mines in Poland is an important part of the energy transition aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting climate commitments. These decisions are particularly important in mining regions such as Silesia, where the mining industry is the main pillar of the economy. Given the gradual closure of mines and the reduction of employment in the mining sector, there is a need to analyse the migration of workers and their potential adaptation to the labour market. This paper aims to examine the impact of mine closures on the employment structure of the national economy using the input-output method. The analysis includes a decomposition of input-output tables (TPMD), in which branches such as thermal coal, coking coal, and lignite were distinguished. This has made it possible to precisely track economic flows between subsectors of the economy and identify which sectors are most vulnerable to the negative effects of reduced coal mining in Poland. The analysis also shows how a change in coal mining may affect related sectors such as energy, transport, and steel, increasing the need for structural adjustments. In particular, the article focuses on possible scenarios for the migration of workers from the closing mines and their re-deployment. Various coal reduction (WR) variants are considered, including WR25%, WR50%, WR75%, and WR100%, reflecting scenarios of declining domestic production. The paper also considers the possible substitution of domestic coal with imported raw materials (WS). The article concludes by identifying the most important conclusions.