Predicting Tuberculosis Risk in Cattle, Buffaloes, Sheep, and Goats in China Based on Air Pollutants and Meteorological Factors

Tuberculosis is a zoonotic chronic respiratory infectious disease caused by the <i>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</i> complex. The outbreak and epidemic of tuberculosis can seriously threaten human and veterinary health. To investigate the effects of environmental factors on tuberculosis in domestic ruminants, we collected data regarding the prevalence of tuberculosis in cattle, buffaloes, sheep, and goats in China (1956-2024) from publicly published literature and available databases. We identified the key risk factors among six major air pollutants and 19 bioclimatic variables; simulated the risk distribution of tuberculosis in cattle, buffaloes, sheep, and goats in China using the maximum entropy ecological niche model; and evaluated the effects of environmental factors. The area under the curve of the model was 0.873 (95% confidence interval, 0.851-0.895). The risk factors that most significantly influenced the prevalence of tuberculosis were the nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) level, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, cattle distribution density, sheep distribution density, ozone (O₃) level, and precipitation of the driest month. The predicted map of tuberculosis risk in cattle, buffaloes, sheep, and goats indicated that the high-risk regions were mainly distributed in South, North, East, and Northwest China. Improved surveillance is needed in these high-risk areas, and early preventive measures must be implemented based on the risk factors identified to reduce the future prevalence of tuberculosis in cattle, buffaloes, sheep, and goats.