Syria's transition is underway, but challenges abound

Significance Sharaa presents himself as Syria's undisputed leader and has sought to reassure domestic and foreign interlocutors about his intentions for the future. Meanwhile, a new caretaker government is focused on security and the continuity of state services. Decisions on contentious issues such as armed groups operating outside Sharaa's purview and the specific contours of the country's new political system may be deferred until further notice. Impacts Israel will be intent on keeping newly occupied Syrian territories and expanding settlements in the Golan Heights. Syria's inherent weakness and Israel's bellicose stance will further reinforce Turkey's influence. The new leadership will lack the ability (and incentive) to restore Damascus's past influence in Lebanon.