Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emission reduction potential of the transportation industry in China

Abstract Scientific estimation of China's transport carbon reduction potential (CERP) and exploration of its temporal and spatial characteristics and influencing factors are important bases for formulating emission reduction policies. Based on the dual perspective of equity and efficiency, we assess the CERP of the transportation industry in 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019 and analyze its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics using the Kernel density estimation method. Then, the Dagum Gini coefficient is used to measure the regional differences and sources of the CERP, and its influencing factors are analyzed with the help of the random effects panel Tobit regression model. The results show that: (1) from 2000 to 2019, the CERP of the transportation industry in China and the three regions show an oscillating upward trend, with a spatial pattern of "high in the west and low in the east". (2) The overall difference in the CERP of the transportation industry shows a fluctuating downward trend, and the difference in hypervariable density has the highest contribution rate. The inter-regional differences between the West and other regions are the largest, and the intra-regional difference pattern shows the pattern of western > central > east. (3) The technological improvement, industrial structure, and scale of transportation industry development have a significant positive impact on the CERP of the transportation industry. The influence of urbanization influence and environmental regulation have a significant negative influence.