Impacts of Climate Change on Arctic Winter Cyclones

Abstract We simulated Arctic climate using a high‐resolution implementation of WRF driven by HadGEM‐ES2 climate model outputs, following IPCC5 warming scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The downscaled results indicate that, by the end‐of‐century, there are no significant changes in the average minimum central pressures or total number of winter Arctic cyclones. However, there are significant changes in the spatial patterns. For example, the frequency and vorticity of cyclones tend to increase over the western Arctic. Due to the poleward movement of the polar frontal zone and the increased low‐level tropospheric baroclinicity, more cyclones are expected to form within the Arctic Basin and migrate into the western‐central Arctic. We expect about 39% more cyclone tracks forming and dying in the Arctic Basin under RCP8.5, compared to present climate. On the other hand, with the reduced baroclinicity in the entire troposphere, there is a reduced genesis, frequency, and vorticity of cyclones over the Atlantic Arctic. Moreover, the depth of cyclones shows a robust decrease over the Arctic Basin, suggesting weakened eddy kinetic energy. With increasing greenhouse gases, the changes in cyclone vorticities and their depths tend to be stronger. In addition, the high resolution Polar WRF results demonstrate that changes in cyclone track density and intensities consistently become more pronounced with increasing radiative forcing.