Methane Dynamics in Inner Mongolia: Unveiling Spatial and Temporal Variations and Driving Factors

Methane (CH4), the second-largest greenhouse gas contributing to global warming, has a high warming potential despite its short atmospheric lifespan. Inner Mongolia, due to its high carbon and energy consumption industries, faces significant methane emission challenges. This study uses TROPOMI satellite data (February 2019 to December 2022) to analyze the long-term trends and spatial distribution of methane in Inner Mongolia. The results indicate significant spatial heterogeneity in the methane concentration distribution in Inner Mongolia, China. Higher methane concentrations are observed in the southeastern regions, whereas the central regions exhibit relatively lower concentrations. Temporally, the methane concentrations show an increasing trend with seasonal peaks from late August to early September. Using multiple stepwise regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods, the study identifies the key factors influencing methane concentrations. Increased precipitation and soil temperature, along with intensified human activity, contribute to higher methane levels, while rising surface temperatures and increased vegetation suppress methane concentrations. The GWR model provides a better fit compared to the traditional methods, especially in regions with higher methane levels. This research offers insights for developing strategies to mitigate methane emissions and supports China’s emission control targets.