Macroeconomic Determinants of BIST100: A Study Using Fourier and Asymmetric Causality Methods

This study examines the relationship between the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 index, a key indicator in the Turkish financial markets, and selected macroeconomic variables, including gold prices, inflation, money supply and the VIX fear index. Fourier-based asymmetric causality tests and cointegration analysis are used to assess the long-run and short-run effects of these variables on the BIST 100 index. The results show a strong negative relationship between gold prices and the BIST 100 index, while inflation has a positive impact on the stock market. Although the money supply does not have a direct effect on the markets, it can promote optimism when considered alongside inflation and other economic activity. The VIX index has no significant effect on the BIST 100. These findings underscore the importance of understanding the role of macroeconomic variables in stock market dynamics, providing both investors and policymakers with critical insights for making strategic decisions.