Economic Determinants of E-Commerce: A Frequency-Domain Causality Analysis of CPI and Personal Loans in Turkiye

This study explores the relationship between e-commerce volume, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and personal loan rates in Turkey, focusing on the period from 2015 to 2024. By employing time series analysis and frequency-domain causality tests, the research aims to identify the factors influencing the growth of e-commerce in Turkey, particularly in response to economic fluctuations. Traditional unit root tests, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, were used alongside the Zivot-Andrews test to account for structural breaks in the data. The findings suggest a significant positive impact of personal loans on e-commerce volume, while CPI fluctuations show a nuanced effect, with short-term inflation dampening consumer activity and long-term inflation promoting price-sensitive shopping behaviors. Frequency-domain tests further reveal that personal loans have a stronger long-term causal impact on e-commerce than CPI. These results underline the crucial role of digital finance mechanisms and consumer credit in supporting the expansion of Turkey’s digital economy. The study contributes to the literature by highlighting the interplay between economic indicators and e-commerce dynamics in emerging markets.