Analysis of Vegetation Coverage Changes and Influencing Factors in Aksu, Xinjiang, China (2000–2020): A Comparative Study of Climate Factors and Urban Development

The ecological environment is fundamental to human survival and development, and China has seen a historical shift from localized to widespread improvements in its ecological conditions. Aksu, a typical ecologically sensitive region in Xinjiang, China, is significant for the study of vegetation dynamics and their driving factors, which is crucial for ecological conservation. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation coverage in Aksu from 2000 to 2020 using long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and trend analysis. Additionally, this study explores key factors influencing vegetation changes through correlation analysis with temperature, precipitation, and nighttime light data. The results indicate the following: (1) vegetation coverage in Aksu exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with annual NDVI increasing at a rate of 0.83% per year (p < 0.05); (2) the influence of temperature and precipitation on NDVI was weakly correlated from 2000 to 2020; and (3) a strong positive correlation was found between nighttime light intensity and NDVI, suggesting that urban development plays a dominant role in vegetation change, while temperature and precipitation have comparatively minor impacts. The findings provide a scientific basis for ecological conservation and sustainable development in the region.