Midterm perspectives on natural gas after the European gas crisis: Reviewing German energy transition studies

The situation on the European natural gas market is still tense. Due to the possibility of a gas shortage and higher prices, gas in Germany has been partially replaced by coal and oil. At the same time, Germany is aiming to reach climate neutrality by 2045, which has led to various studies in which climate neutrality scenarios have been modeled. Are the paths described in the studies—especially in the medium term—still valid in view of the new circumstances? In this work, six studies published since 2021, which present a total of 30 scenarios, are considered. Particular focus is placed on the medium-term consumption of natural gas and hydrogen. The goal is to assess whether the suspended natural gas imports from Russia pose a risk of natural gas shortage and whether increasing liquified natural gas imports, increased gas savings, or substitution with (green) hydrogen can fill the supply gap. After examining the supply situation in all scenarios, they were further analyzed to identify the assumptions that have a high impact on the gas supply situation. According to the calculations in this analysis, in 28 of 30 examined scenarios, a supply gap will occur in at least one year in the next up to 2030. • 30 scenarios from 6 studies are analyzed with respect to natural gas and hydrogen. • Paths of primary energy consumption of natural gas until 2030 are derived. • Supply gaps are calculated based on assumptions about the future exports and imports. • Projections by the studies are mostly unviable in securing supply in the mid term. • Three options for closing the possible supply gap are presented.