Do public attitudes on gender equality affect candidate selection in proportional representation systems? Evidence from European Parliament elections

A shift in public attitudes towards gender equality may explain improvements we have witnessed in women’s descriptive representation. However, existing studies rely on cross-sectional comparisons, likely beset with confounding problems. To examine the causal effect of public attitudes on candidate selection, we draw on data from more than 10,000 candidacies across four European Parliament elections (1999–2014). Using a difference-in-differences approach, we compare nomination decisions in countries with major attitude changes between elections to those in the control group. We find no evidence that shifts towards more egalitarian gender attitudes lead to an increase in women candidates, neither overall nor in subgroups by electoral system or socio-cultural party positions. The heterogeneity of effects across time and space appears to be a plausible explanation for our findings.