Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Avian Influenza in Cattle

Avian Influenza (AI) poses a critical threat to cattle production worldwide, resulting in significant yield losses and economic damages. Despite the severity of AI, comprehensive modeling studies on its transmission dynamics within cattle populations remain limited. In this study, we present a mathematical model to describe the spread of AI among cattle. The model is based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) framework, adapted to capture the unique characteristics of AI transmission. The disease-free equilibrium of the model was computed, and the basic reproduction number for AI was calculated using the next-generation matrix method. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using normalized forward sensitivity method to determine the impact of various parameters on the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_0$). Analytical and numerical analyses indicate that increased contact rates between susceptible cattle and infected virus significantly raise the transmission rate of AI, impacting cattle health and productivity. Sensitivity analysis highlights that the recruitment rates of cattle and infection rates are the most influential parameters affecting $\mathcal{R}_0$. Control measures such as introducing AI-resistant cattle breeds and improving farm management practices to reduce infection rates may be used to mitigate the disease spread. This study enhances the understanding of AI transmission dynamics, providing valuable insights for developing targeted control strategies to protect cattle health and improve production.