The Bounce‐Back of Business Travel. An Exploration Through the Lens of Complex Systems Theory

ABSTRACT During the Covid‐pandemic, the expectation emerged that the digitalization of business processes would have a permanent character. In particular, business travel would be replaced, to a large extent, by virtual meetings. This article uses complex systems theory to study business travel to Amsterdam before and after the Covid‐pandemic, analyzing a large dataset of hotel check‐ins and check‐outs from 55% of the city's hotels during 2019, 2022, and 2023. The data were explored to detect changes in business traveler behavior and subjected to tests proposed by Baggio and Sainaghi to assess the dynamics of nonlinear complex tourism systems. Despite the pandemic's disruption, our findings suggest that business travel dynamics continue to evolve similarly to pre‐pandemic trends, with notable shifts in markets of origin, longer stays, and a move toward midscale hotels and bleisure stays. The study also highlights a dissonance between actual travel behavior and the desire to reduce business travel for environmental or social reasons. By applying complex systems theory, this research enhances our understanding of the resilience and adaptability of business travel, emphasizing the need for strategic foresight and scenario planning in the hospitality and tourism sectors to navigate post‐pandemic complexities.