Simulation analysis of the damage and recovery process in natural disasters: a case study of high-speed railways in Sichuan Province, China

Abstract This study employs a dynamic input–output model to simulate the recovery process of a high-speed railway and the subsequent regional economic recovery following an earthquake. The analysis considers the impact of earthquakes of varying magnitudes on Sichuan Province, its neighboring areas, and the entire nation of China. The simulation is conducted against the backdrop of the restoration and reconstruction efforts in Sichuan Province post-earthquake. The findings reveal that the recovery speed of the high-speed railway transportation sector is influenced not only by the established recovery time, but also by the pace of recovery in adjacent industrial sectors and external inputs. Accelerated recovery in adjacent industrial sectors contributes to a faster recovery of the high-speed railway transportation sector. Furthermore, once the adjacent industrial sectors return to normal levels of recovery, the high-speed railway transportation sector follows suit, reaching the established recovery rate. In terms of regional economic recovery, provinces with smaller economies experience higher rates of economic reduction due to earthquakes. Conversely, provinces with a significant proportion of high-speed railways in their economies witness higher rates of economic reduction following seismic events. The insights derived from this study hold practical significance for guiding regional economic and transportation recovery and reconstruction efforts post-major earthquakes.