TRENDS IN DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES: MARRIAGE, DIVORCE, AND BIRTH RATES WITHIN THE KURSK REGION IN 2012–2022

Introduction. The demographic situation in the country depends on many factors and processes of population reproduction in the regions, including in the Kursk region. Monitoring marriage, divorce, and birth rates will allow quickly making managerial decisions, which will contribute to the development of the region in all areas, including developing and adjusting programs aimed at supporting families and marriage and increasing birth rates. Aim. Analysis of trends in marriage, divorce, and birth rates in the Kursk region in 2012-2022. Materials and Methods. The study of demographic processes using official data from the State Statistics Service of Russia in the Central Federal District and in the Kursk Region, as well as the findings of a sociological survey of medical university students’ opinions regarding family planning, allows us to most fully assess the trends in demographic processes occurring in these territories. Results and Discussion. A negative trend has been established in the dynamic series of marriage rates in the Kursk region (the average growth rate of the overall marriage rate is 10.9%). This figure was the lowest in 2020 – at the time of COVID-19. High marriage rates were identified in 2021 and 2022. The number of divorces during the study period increased by 2.4%. Over the past two years, there has been an increase in the number of divorce cases. The lowest overall divorce rate was recorded in 2020. The average birth rate growth was 4.2%. Over the entire period of this study, out-of-wedlock birth rates decreased on average by 1.4% in the Kursk region. KSMU students plan to start a family in 84.0% of cases, 89.9% of respondents equate cohabitation with official marriage, and 80.0% are ready to live in an informal relationship. 78.0% of respondents expressed the opinion that intimate relationships before marriage are a personal matter for everyone. The survey of the KSMU students revealed that the most respondents are ready to have a family with two children (47%). Conclusions. The decline in the overall marriage rate is associated with the transformation of family values and starting families without being officially registered with the civil registry office. The majority of KSMU students surveyed are ready to live in informal relationships, which may result in the increased out- of-wedlock birth rates, currently decreasing in the Kursk region. Direct correlations have been established between general marriage rates with divorce and birth rates (p ≤ 0.05).