The effect of projected conditions of expansion planning in the electric power industry on regional disparities in the cost of electricity

Projections of possible dynamics of generation costs and electricity prices are of paramount importance for strategies and programs of energy sector development. They give insight into the competitiveness of various types of power plants and serve as an important benchmark for making investment decisions. The price of electricity is one of the key metrics of the country’s energy and economic security. This article proposes a step-by-step approach to estimating the probable value of this metric as part of long-term projections. The approach involves optimizing the expansion planning of the electric power industry as well as determining and comparing the average and marginal costs of power generation in different regional power supply systems under uncertainty. We present the results of modeled calculations for the purpose of assessing regional disparities in both the cost of electricity and its response to different scenarios. We also note that the assumed baseline scenario follows closely «The Master Plan of Placement of Electric Power Industry Facilities to 2035».