Projections for territorial distribution of farms in Bulgaria till 2030 entailed by the Green Deal

The present study aims to develop scenario projections for the territorial distribution of farms in Bulgaria spanned between 2020 and 2030. It will mark important stages of the modern development of agriculture, which is within direction of prioritization designated into integrating the measures related to climate change and protection of environment setup in the Green Deal. On the one hand, the study is interesting because it works with a proportional extrapolation method through which projections are made in three scenarios. On the other hand, it illustrates the feasible future distribution of farms in Bulgaria in rural and non-rural areas driven by the effects of the Green Deal. The effects and impact of the Green Deal specifically on the number of farms was made on the basis of a literature study and a expert judgment method. The results of the research show that the number of farms will experience an apparent change in the direction of reduction, and probably it will not be with the same intensity, both due to the multiple factors that may appear meanwhile as well as in terms of territorial dimensions between separate municipalities. The number of farms in the country is expected to go down, and between 2010 and 2020 the decline is estimated up to 64%, whereas by 2030 without the effects of the Green Deal it is expected to reach a decrease by another 43% in the Statius-quo scenario, and because of the Green Deal, this percentage may aggravate additionally by between 1,7 – 5,7% until 2030.