Sources of Elected Representatives’ (Mis)Perceptions of Public Opinion: The Role of Self-Projection and Interest Groups

Scholars question the effectiveness of representation, suggesting politicians often misperceive public opinion. We explore the magnitude and potential drivers of misperceptions by comparing actual public opinion on policy with approximately 10,000 estimations of public opinion by representatives at all government levels in Denmark and the Netherlands. Our results show misperceptions are widespread and associated with a tendency for representatives to project their own opinion onto the public. In contrast, links to interest groups are of lower importance: Connections to business groups show some association with inaccuracies but do not affect the direction of perceptual biases. Moreover, citizen groups have limited potential to affect perceptions altogether. A mediation analysis suggests that, if interest groups matter for perceptual biases, their impact is likely indirect through their influence on representatives’ own positions. Our findings contribute to unravelling the interplay between self-projection and interest groups in understanding (mis)perceptions, with important implications for political representation.