Application of a statistical model to identify villages at risk of depopulation in Poland

Rural settlements are dynamic structures, and each historical period is characterised by certain directions of changes in the countryside, visible mainly in demographic processes. Based on an analysis of statistical data for the years 1950–2021, the authors determine those directions of future demographic changes in Polish villages that are causing changes in the rural settlement structure. The authors, using a statistical model, indicate the regions of the country that are at risk of village desertification and identify villages facing permanent population regression. This article presents the changes that took place in the rural settlement structure of Polish villages between 1950 and 2021 and forecasts future changes. The research aims to create a probabilistic projection of the population in Polish villages. Factors influencing the rural population are also discussed. The research is addressed to state and local administrations with the message that they should implement timely and responsible measures to revitalise the countryside and stop the demographic shrinkage leading to the emptying of villages in some regions of Poland.