Explaining recent fertility trends in Iran: the predominance of marriage and the economy

In Iran, childbearing is confined to marriage with a unique pattern of long interbirth intervals. This paper explores the influence of marriage on fertility trends within the context of the recent pronatalist policy introduced by the government to promote marriage and childbearing. We determine that Iran’s pronatalist policy has overlooked the implications of recent fertility trends and the imbalance in the marriage market which led to a marriage boom suggesting a mismatch between policy goals and demographic realities. Beyond this, the 2019 economic downturn is a reason for the recent fall in fertility. The recent increase in number of marriages is attributed to marriage loans provided to young couples. However, paradoxically, these loans have led to delayed first births, counteracting the intended effects. We conclude that the incentives included in the 2021 Population Law are not closely aligned with the social values and aspirations of the young generation.