Assessing the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow generation in the Nowrangpur catchment based on the SWAT–land-use update tool

ABSTRACT Climate change and land-use change are two major factors that affect the hydrologic response of a river basin. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a reliable method to model the hydrology of a river basin. The SWAT–land-use update tool offers a user-friendly interface for the incorporation of dynamic land-use changes into hydrological modeling. This paper evaluates the impacts of climate and dynamic land-use changes on streamflow generation in the Nowrangpur catchment encompassing Indravati dam, which is a major water-resources project in India. Calibrating the SWAT model involved updating land-use data from 1985 to 2015, yielding satisfactory results. The future land-use/land-cover changes were predicted using the cellular automata–artificial neural network model. Downscaled general circulation model data from ten climate models were utilized to predict climate-change impacts up to 2100. Projections indicate increased precipitation during the months from August to December with a more pronounced increase in the mid and far future. An uptrend in maximum and minimum temperatures for all months is observed in the far-future relative to the baseline period. Furthermore, the streamflow predictions indicate a near-future decrease in total annual streamflow, followed by an increase of up to 41% in the mid and far future.