Strategic Adaptation to Climate Change through Monte Carlo-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Model in Marine Spatial Planning

Balas, E.A.; Genç, A.N, and Balas, C.E., 2024. Strategic adaptation to climate change through Monte Carlo-based multi-criteria decision model in marine spatial planning. In: Phillips, M.R.; Al-Naemi, S., and Duarte, C.M. (eds.), Coastlines under Global Change: Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2024 (Doha, Qatar). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 113, pp. 169-174. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) emerges as a critical methodology for Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) within the Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (SEIA) framework, addressing policy, planning, and programming challenges exacerbated by climate change. MCDM facilitates the evaluation of diverse coastal scenarios, assessing the suitability of each criterion for maritime use, thereby aiding in the selection of options that optimally balance benefits and compromises. This study develops an MCDM Model to assess the vulnerability of coastal defenses to climate-induced sea-level rise and storm surges, highlighting its efficacy in navigating the spatial and environmental complexities of marine areas. The Hydrodynamic Model concerns waves, winds, currents, climate change, and storm surge. The Monte Carlo Simulation performs sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of coastal flooding. Hence, the pertinence of MCDM in MSP is magnified in the face of climate change, which threatens to intensify environmental dilemmas in coastal zones. Through a Monte Carlo Simulation-based model, this paper delineates the variations in seaside criteria within the overall settlement analysis for coastal investments, enabling the distinct observation of each criterion's impact via sensitivity analysis. The analysis identifies climate change as a paramount seaside parameter, influencing the resilience and planning of coastal infrastructures. The model is applied to consider the effects of the August 17, 1999, earthquake in Kocaeli, Turkey, which significantly impacted the Marmara region, including the tsunami in the İzmit Bay. These hazards emphasize the urgency of incorporating MCDM into MSP to enhance coastal resilience against climatic and seismic threats. The affected coastlines emphasize the need for strategic planning and decision-making supported by MCDM to mitigate future risks in coastal zones.