Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China

Tianshan Mountain region of China. Global warming alters precipitation patterns, with future scenarios predicting variability being greater than merely changes in rainfall amounts. Changes have affected the water cycle and resource stability in the Tianshan Mountain region in China (TM), the primary water source of Central Asia. Based on ensemble precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, this study analyzed multiscale changes in precipitation variability in the TM for the near (2030–2065) and far future (2066–2100) using Shannon entropy, offering valuable insights for water resource management and future challenges. A negative correlation was observed between precipitation variability and precipitation, with areas experiencing high precipitation usually having low variability. In the near future, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP245) scenario indicated higher interannual precipitation variability, whereas the SSP585 scenario showed lower variability. In the far future, the SSP585 scenario showed an increase in interannual and a decrease in intra-annual variability, whereas the SSP245 scenario showed an opposite trend. Seasonal perspectives showed that summer interannual variability decreased in the future, with increases in spring and fall. Owing to changes in precipitation patterns, water resource availability increased in the future, with the SSP585 scenario showing a greater increase than the SSP245 scenario. • A negative correlation is observed between SVI ME and precipitation amount. • The SSP245 shows higher SVI ME than the SSP585 scenario in the near future. • SSP585 shows increase SVI ME and decrease SVI A E in far future, SSP245 shows the opposite. • Summer SVI ME decreases in the future, while it increases in spring and fall. • The change in precipitation variability will increase water resource availability in the future.