Early Identification of Low Scorers: The Role of Formative Assessments and Summative Assessments

Background Identifying students who are low scorers is essential for providing timely interventions and support. Traditional methods of identifying such students often rely on summative assessments, such as end-of-term exams. However, formative assessments offer valuable insights into students' understanding, strengths, and weaknesses. This study aimed to compare the predictive capabilities of formative and summative assessments in forecasting final university examination scores in physiology among first-year medical students. By employing a regression model, we aimed to develop a reliable predictor of final scores based on formative and summative assessments. Such a model would enable the early identification of students at risk of obtaining low scores in university examinations. Methods A cohort of 125 first-year medical students was evaluated. Scores from three formative assessments, three summative assessments, and the final university examination in physiology were collected. The formative assessments consisted of multiple-choice questions (MCQs), while the summative assessments and university examinations included a combination of MCQs and essay-type questions. Correlation and regression analyses were performed to determine the predictive power of these assessments. Results Data from 82 students were analyzed. The highest mean score was observed in the final university examination (63.28 ± 4.63), followed by the third summative assessment (62.45 ± 8.2). Significant differences were found among the scores across the various assessments (F (4.587, 371.5) = 61.14, p-value < 0.0001). Formative assessments and summative assessment scores can predict the university examination score (R = 0.764, R² = 0.583, p-value < 0.0001). However, individually, only the second summative (t = 2.87, p-value = 0.005, 95% confidence interval = 0.038-0.21) and the third summative (t = 3.25, p-value = 0.002, 95% confidence interval = 0.086-0.359) significantly contribute to the model of prediction. Conclusion Students' performance in formative and summative assessments can predict success in university exams, with the second and third summative assessments being significant. These assessments, conducted later in the course, are more effective in identifying students likely to score lower in final exams compared to formative assessments.