Global climate change and its impact on the distribution and efficacy of Bacillus thuringiensis as a biopesticide

This study is the first modeling exercise to assess the impacts of climate change on the current and future global distribution of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). Bt is a common Gram-positive, rod-shaped bacterium widely distributed in various environments, including soil and water. It is widely recognized as a source of effective and safe agricultural biopesticides for pest management in various climatic regions globally. In the present work, ensemble species distribution models were developed for Bt based on the generalized linear model (GLM), generalized boosting model (GBM), random forest (RF), and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) under two distinct scenarios, SSP2-4.5 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) for the year of 2050, 2070, and 2090. The performance of our models was evaluated based on true skill statistics (TSS) and the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) indices. Both AUC and TSS values were observed in an acceptable range, with AUC at 0.84 and TSS at 0.512, respectively. Results indicate that most of the areas currently suitable for Bt will likely remain stable in the future, particularly Central America, Central and South Africa, South Asia, and parts of Oceania. Norway, Peru, and the UK will have notable habitat gains by 2090 based on SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. On the contrary, Serbia, Guinea, Poland, Croatia, Spain and Romania showed notable losses under both scenarios. Our results underscore Bt potential to improve pest control, crop yields, and environmental sustainability, especially in regions where agriculture is predominant. Our research highlights the need to understand ecological dynamics for future conservation and agricultural planning in the face of climate change.