Feasibility test of per-flight contrail avoidance in commercial aviation
Contrails, formed by aircraft engines, are a major component of aviation's impact on anthropogenic climate change. Contrail avoidance is a potential option to mitigate this warming effect, however, uncertainties surrounding operational constraints and accurate formation prediction make it unclear whether it is feasible. Here we address this gap with a feasibility test through a randomized controlled trial of contrail avoidance in commercial aviation at the per-flight level. Predictions for regions prone to contrail formation came from a physics-based simulation model and a machine learning model. Participating pilots made altitude adjustments based on contrail formation predictions for flights assigned to the treatment group. Using satellite-based imagery we observed 64% fewer contrails in these flights relative to the control group flights, a statistically significant reduction (p = 0.0331). Our targeted per-flight intervention allowed the airline to track their expected vs actual fuel usage, we found that there is a 2% increase in fuel per adjusted flight. This study demonstrates that per-flight detectable contrail avoidance is feasible in commercial aviation.
Authors
- Tharun Sankar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0557-0972)
- Christopher Van Arsdale (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8473-6725)
- Marc Shapiro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8953-9322)
- Ole Schütt (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8661-3418)
- Carl Elkin
- Frank Opel
- Sixing Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2646-9259)
- Brian Norris
- John M. Dudley (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9520-9699)
- Zebediah Engberg
- Joe Yue-Hei Ng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5378-3123)
- Scott Geraedts
- Thomas Dean (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9065-0784)
- Kevin McCloskey (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9967-4117)
- Aaron Sarna (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8786-5581)
- John Platt (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5652-5303)
- Nibras A.Mohammed Ali (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9555-4812)
- Erica Brand (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8173-9914)
- Aarón Sonabend (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6165-9082)
- Nita Goyal (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9087-9976)
- Ulrike Hager
- Joshua E. Rothenberg
- Mark Galyen
- Rebecca Grenham
- Deborah Hecker
- Marco Jany
- Dinesh Sanekommu
- Rachel Soh
- Jill Blickstein
- Brian Broshears
Institutions
- Google (United States) (US)
- American Airlines (United States) (US)
- Breakthrough (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Communications Engineering
- Published
- 2024-12-20
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s44172-024-00329-7
- Citations
- 9
- Primary Topic
- Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.54