Unveiling two decades of forest transition in Anamur, Türkiye: a remote sensing and GIS-driven intensity analysis (2000–2020)

Introduction Monitoring LULC changes is crucial for developing strategies for natural resource management, assessing the current potential of a region, and addressing global environmental issues. In this context, this study examines land use and land cover (LULC) changes in forest and non-forest areas of Anamur district, located in the Mediterranean Region of Türkiye, between 2000 and 2020. Methods Using the intensity analysis method, which offers a detailed and efficient approach to understanding LULC changes, the study analyzes transitions at interval, category, and transition levels. LULC maps were generated through supervised classification of Landsat satellite images, focusing on seven classes: Coniferous, Broad-Leaved, Mixed, Treeless Gap, Settlement, Agriculture, and Water. The analysis evaluated changes within and between these categories, interpreting the results through graphical outputs. The driving forces behind these changes were also explored, and their underlying causes were discussed. Results and Discussion Results at the interval level revealed that the most significant changes occurred during the 2000-2010 period. At the category level, the Coniferous category exhibited the highest degree of change in both intervals. During 2000-2010, Coniferous gains predominantly replaced non-forest areas (Agriculture, Settlement, and Water), while this pattern was less evident in 2010-2020. In contrast, Treeless Gap gains primarily replaced Coniferous areas during 2010-2020, while no significant losses in Treeless Gap were targeted by other categories. Broad-Leaved species were found to heavily target Water losses, likely due to their higher water demands compared to Coniferous species, as supported by prior studies. This research highlights the advantages of intensity analysis in LULC studies, offering insights into spatial changes and their intensity across categories. It aims to promote its adoption and underscores the importance of targeted conservation and land management strategies to mitigate the impacts of forest loss, land use changes, and water resource pressures.