Comparison of ARIMA and Bayesian Structural Time Series Models for Predicting the Trend of Syphilis Epidemic in Jiangsu Province
Syphilis is a seasonal disease in Jiangsu Province, and its incidence is still at a high level. The BSTS model is superior to the ARIMA model in dynamically predicting the incidence trend of syphilis in Jiangsu Province and has better application value.
Authors
- Fengquan Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9517-7439)
- Xinxiao Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4899-9832)
- Yanyan Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1413-8778)
- Bingjie Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0535-0371)
- Yongbin Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7854-7020)
- Chenlu Xue (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1190-0303)
Institutions
- Henan Medical University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Infection and Drug Resistance
- Published
- 2024-12-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.2147/idr.s462998
- Citations
- 5
- Primary Topic
- Syphilis Diagnosis and Treatment
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.63