Coupling of urbanization and grain production: patterns, processes, and mechanisms—a case study from China

Food security is crucial for national stability and public welfare. Since the 21st century, China’s grain production has been significantly influenced by the rapid process of urbanization. In this context, this paper systematically measures the multidimensional coupling patterns and dynamic coupling processes between urbanization and grain production from 2000 to 2022, and preliminarily summarizes the complex coupling mechanisms within the Chinese context. The goal is to provide scientific references for achieving high-quality coordinated development of urbanization and grain production in China. The study reveals the following key findings: (1) The coupling relationship between urbanization and grain production exhibits both regional heterogeneity and temporal variability, demonstrating specific levels of coupling and dynamic processes under distinct spatiotemporal conditions. (2) Between 2000 and 2022, both urbanization and grain production patterns in China underwent significant reconstruction, with the coupling coordination level displaying a long-term spatial pattern of “high in the north, low in the south; high in the east, low in the west.” Although there is an overall upward trend in coupling coordination states, spatial imbalances and dimensional heterogeneity persist. (3) Since the beginning of the 21st century, the dynamic coupling processes between provincial urbanization and grain production have primarily manifested as two types: simultaneous increase (with urbanization outpacing grain production) and urban increase accompanied by grain production decrease. Various dynamic coupling types exhibit significant spatial clustering, and the multidimensional dynamic coupling processes reveal notable similarities. (4) The evolution of coupling states demonstrates an overall trend of optimization, with clear bidirectional migration trends observed in coupling dynamics, primarily transitioning from simultaneous increase (urbanization outpacing grain production) to urban increase with grain production decrease, and vice versa. (5) The formation of the complex coupling relationship between urbanization and grain production in the Chinese context is fundamentally influenced by changes in population quantity and structure between urban and rural areas, shifts in land use, economic transformation, regional specialization, technological interactions, and factor mobility. These influences exhibit significant negative effects in the domains of population, land, and economy, while showcasing notable positive effects in terms of technology and factor mobility.