Tracing Demographic Events Through the Seasons in 18th and 19th Century Bologna

This study explores the seasonality of demographic events, focusing on birth seasonality in Bologna from 1729 to 1860. Utilizing monthly data series, the research investigates the impact of meteorological conditions, specifically rainfall and temperature, on birth trends. The analysis employs Henry's seasonality indicators and OLS regression models to examine the effects of lagged precipitation and temperature on birth rates. The findings reveal a consistent pattern of birth seasonality, with births peaking in the early months of the year and declining in summer. The study concludes that weather conditions had a significant, albeit modest, impact on birth seasonality, highlighting the historical interplay between environmental factors and demographic trends in pre-transition settings.