Rainfall variability and drought in West Africa: challenges and implications for rainfed agriculture

Abstract This research investigates rainfall variability and drought patterns in West Africa and their consequential impacts on rainfed agriculture, with a particular focus on vulnerability linked to weather extremes Utilizing NASA POWER/Agro-climatology data, cross-validated against observed meteorological records in the targeted countries, this study spans the years 1981 to 2021, with a particular focus on Ghana and Burkina Faso. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and different statistical methods were employed to evaluate the variations in rainfall, including intensity and frequency, as well as analyze drought patterns in the study areas. Despite increased rainfall in the last decade, seasonal and decadal shifts have been noticed, and drought and irregular patterns still threaten the study areas. Temporal analysis reveals fluctuations in temperature and rainfall. SPI and SPEI results indicated a decline in drought frequency, aligned with global trends, though the monthly scale showed no evident decline. The spatial analysis highlights regional variations in rainfall and drought dynamics. The study emphasizes the importance of region-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies, providing valuable insights for informed decision-making in West Africa's agriculture and water resource management under climate change. The findings underscore the continued threat of irregular rainfall patterns and drought, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches to address these challenges.