Spatiotemporal Analysis and Risk Prediction of Water Quality Using Copula Bayesian Networks: A Case in Qilu Lake, China

Lake water pollution under anthropogenic influences exhibits characteristics of high uncertainty, rapid evolution, and complex control challenges, presenting substantial threats to ecological systems and human health. Quantitative risk prediction provides crucial support for water quality deterioration prevention and management. This study employed the Copula Bayesian Network model to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment of water quality in Qilu Lake, China (2010–2020), incorporating inter-indicator correlations and multiple uncertainty sources. Analysis revealed generally “worse” water quality conditions (5.10 ± 1.35) according to established index classifications, with predicted probabilities of reaching “deteriorated” status ranging from 11.80% to 47.90%. Significant spatial and temporal variations in water quality and pollution risk were observed, primarily attributed to intensive agricultural non-point source loading and water resource deficiency. The study established early warning thresholds through key indicator concentration predictions, particularly for the southern region where “deteriorated” risk levels corresponded to specific ranges: TN (3.42–8.43 mg/L), TP (0.07–1.29 mg/L), and CODCr (27.75–67.19 mg/L). This methodology effectively characterizes lake water quality evolution while enabling risk prediction through key indicator monitoring. The findings provide substantial support for water pollution control strategies, risk management protocols, and regulatory decision-making for lake ecosystem administrators.