A Three-Level Approach to Examining the Relationship Between Categorical Beacons of Influence and Democracy in Western Europe

Abstract Despite the global proliferation of democracy over recent decades, many democratic governments are experiencing unprecedented levels of public dissatisfaction. This study examines how various beacons of grievance—economic dissatisfaction, safety concerns, perceptions of corruption, and attitudes toward immigration—influence individuals’ satisfaction with democratic governance in Western Europe. Utilizing nationally representative data from the 2012 European Social Survey and indicators from the Global Terrorism Database, we employ a three-level hierarchical linear model to simultaneously analyze individual, regional, and country-level variables. Our exploratory, non-directional hypothesis posits that there is a statistically significant relationship between these multilevel factors and individuals’ satisfaction with democratic governance in the European Union. The findings reveal that subjective perceptions play a more significant role than objective indicators in shaping satisfaction with democratic governance. Specifically, individuals with positive opinions on immigration and higher trust in their national parliament exhibit increased satisfaction with democratic governance. At the regional level, higher migration rates correlate positively with democratic governance satisfaction, suggesting a complex interplay between objective conditions and personal attitudes. Conversely, while economic concerns at the individual level affect satisfaction, objective economic indicators at the country level, such as the GINI coefficient, yield unexpected results, indicating higher satisfaction in more unequal societies. By integrating these diverse grievances within a unified multilevel model, this research advances the theoretical understanding of democratic resilience and highlights the importance of considering multilevel factors in assessing public opinion. The study underscores the need for policymakers to address both subjective perceptions and objective conditions to enhance satisfaction with democratic governance. It also calls for further research into cross-level interactions and additional regional variables to deepen the understanding of the dynamics influencing public contentment with democratic governance.