Demographic processes in Arctic territories.

This article provides a brief characterization of the dynamics of population size and age structure in the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and the republics of Komi and Karelia. The main aspects of natural and migration movements of the population are examined. The mortality rates from major groups of diseases (circulatory system diseases, neoplasms) and conditions (external causes of death) are analyzed. The aim of the study is to analyze the demographic indicators of the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and the republics of Komi and Karelia to assess the dynamics of demographic prospects. Materials and methods. Data from the Federal State Statistics Service databases for the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and the republics of Komi and Karelia, as well as the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System for the period from 2013 to 2022, were used as materials. To assess demographic processes, values of general birth and death rates (per 1,000 permanent population), natural increase (or decrease) coefficients, and migration increase (or decrease) coefficients (per 1,000 permanent population) were calculated. Results. In the regions under consideration, a clear trend towards depopulation has been observed from 2013 to 2022 due to declining birth rates, increasing mortality, and migration. This trend has most strongly affected the Republic of Komi and the Arkhangelsk region, with a combined demographic loss of –17.5 and –16.77, respectively. Until 2019, there was an increase in the proportion of pensioners, followed by a decrease, indicating an aging population «from below.» The Nenets Autonomous Okrug stands out with positive natural growth and a high birth rate (11.6 per 1,000 in 2022 compared to 8.9 nationwide). The Arctic zone is characterized by a lower life expectancy than the national average. From 2012 to 2022, a steady decline in birth rates was noted. The total fertility rate in the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions is close to the national average, while in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug it is significantly higher: in 2022 it was 11.6 per 1,000 population compared to 8.9 per 1,000 nationwide. Mortality among the population showed a declining trend since 2012; however, after 2019, this indicator began to rise. The main causes of death in the Arctic regions are diseases of the circulatory system, with rates exceeding the national averages. In 2020 and 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an increase in the standardized mortality rate. The Arkhangelsk region and the Nenets Okrug have high mortality rates from external causes, related to unfavorable living conditions. Mortality rates from neoplasms are close to national averages, with the highest rates in the Republic of Karelia and Arkhangelsk region (254.8 and 248.3 per 1,000 respectively in 2022). Conclusions. All studied regions face a clear trend towards depopulation caused by declining birth rates, increasing mortality, and migration processes, which have particularly affected the Republic of Komi and the Arkhangelsk region. There is an increase in the proportion of pensioners, indicating an aging population. However, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug stands out with positive natural growth and an increase in the number of older individuals due to attractive living conditions. Mortality in the region showed a declining trend until 2019, after which it began to rise, especially as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main causes of death are related to diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, and other external factors. Thus, the issue of demographic crisis requires a comprehensive approach to improving living conditions, increasing birth rates, and reducing mortality in these regions