Effects and Mechanisms of Higher Education Development on Intelligent Productivity Advancement: An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Data in China

In the digital economy era, artificial intelligence implementation has accelerated the intellectualization of productive forces, emphasizing the critical relationship between higher education and this transformation. As the primary conduit for developing advanced human capital, the mechanisms through which higher education adapts to and promotes emerging productive forces require systematic examination. This research establishes a theoretical framework demonstrating the synchronous relationship between higher education development and productive force intellectualization, proposing that higher education development provides essential momentum for this transformation. The framework validation employed panel data analysis from 31 Chinese provinces (2012–2022) using fixed-effects (FE) and mediation effect models. The FE model reveals a positive effect coefficient of 1.561 for higher education development on intelligent productive force enhancement (p < 0.01), indicating substantial promotion of productive force intellectualization without saturation effects. Mediation effect analysis confirms the significance of three mediating factors—labor, capital, and technology (p < 0.05)—validating the influence pathways through human capital, material support, and research innovation mechanisms. The research innovation mechanism demonstrates premier efficacy, while material support mechanisms indicate optimization potential. The human capital mechanism, despite its promise, exhibits implementation time lags. These findings suggest prioritizing intelligent technology talent development, enhancing research investment, and strengthening innovation capabilities to advance higher education’s role in productive force intellectualization.