Identifying the Optimal Scenario for Reducing Land-Use Conflicts in Regional Development

Land-use conflicts are inherent challenges in regional development and have social, economic, and ecological impacts. To mitigate these conflicts, multi-scenario simulations can help identify the most effective scenario with minimal land-use conflicts. However, previous studies often neglected the influence of regional policies on these optimal scenarios. This paper addresses this gap by developing a framework to explore strategies for reducing land-use conflicts using Hechi city in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, as a case study. In this study, the conflict risk is assessed based on the landscape pattern index, and the ecological benefit is assessed based on the ecosystem service value, and the ‘conflict risk–ecological benefit’ assessment method is constructed, focusing on the land-use conflicts in areas where the conflict risk increases and the ecological benefit decreases, and evaluating whether there is a best solution to alleviate these conflicts. The findings reveal that from 2000 to 2020, the area experiencing land-use conflicts in Hechi city increased. The geographic focus of these conflicts has shifted, first moving to the southeast, then to the northwest, and finally returning to the southeast. The overall center of conflict has moved toward the developed areas in the southeast. Among the three future development scenarios (economic lead, ecological priority, and historical signs), the ecological priority scenario, which includes the green development pilot area policy, offers the most significant reduction in land-use conflicts. Under this scenario, the proportion of conflict areas relative to the total area is the smallest at 5.39% in 2025 and 7.92% in 2030. Additionally, the percentage of high-level conflict areas decreases notably from 2.17% in 2025 to 1.12% in 2030. Consequently, this scenario with an ecological priority emerges as the most favorable for Hechi city’s future development. The framework of alleviating land-use conflicts proposed in this study can be used for reference by other ecological resources areas experiencing rapid urbanization.