Econometric Insights into LNG Carrier Port Congestion and Energy Inflation: A Data-Driven Approach

We examine how LNG carrier port congestion in European ports, measured via detailed vessel-level AIS data, affects euro area energy inflation. As energy inflation significantly affects headline inflation, this study provides an additional factor that can contribute to inflationary pressures. Overall, the results show that higher port congestion increases natural gas prices with the latter having an impact on energy inflation. The reaction stands at 0.1% per 1% shock in port congestion. These findings underline the relationship between the shipping industry and the real economy and support the view that shipping developments can potentially be used as leading indicators.