Climate Change Impact on the Future Sea State Conditions in the Black Sea

Rusu, L., 2024. Climate change impact on the future sea state conditions in the Black Sea. In: Phillips, M.R.; Al-Naemi, S., and Duarte, C.M. (eds.), Coastlines under Global Change: Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2024 (Doha, Qatar). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 113, pp. 200-204. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. The effects of climate change on the environmental matrix become more visible in the last years. From this perspective, the main objective of the work herewith proposed is to assess the wave climate in the Black Sea and its expected dynamics in the near future under various scenarios. The analysis is structured in two-time intervals, each one covering a 30-year time slice. Thus, the historical reference period 1976-2005 and the near future period from 2041 to 2070 will be considered. For these periods, the simulation results carried out with the SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) model are considered for the wave climate assessment. To drive the wave model, wind fields simulated by the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used. The RCMs considered are RCA4, provided by the Rossby Centre of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, and ALADIN6X, run by Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Meteo-France. For the near future period, the wind fields simulated by RCA4 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and by ALADIN6X under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (scenario SSP5-8.5) are considered. The comparative analysis of the historical wave climate and future projections will show us its expected dynamics. The study is carried out both on the entire basin, as well as focused on key locations. An increase of the significant wave height is observed in the future, especially under the RCP4.5 scenario. Annual 95th percentiles in reference points show an increasing trend in the future under RCPs.