Sea-Level Rise along the Coast of Qatar, Central Arabian Gulf under Ongoing Global Warming and Climate Change

Abdulla, C.P.; Hamad, A.A.; Aboobacker, V.M.; Sadooni, F.N., and Vethamony, P., 2024. Sea-level rise along the coast of Qatar, central Arabian Gulf under the ongoing global warming and climate change. In: Phillips, M.R.; Al-Naemi, S., and Duarte, C.M. (eds.), Coastlines under Global Change: Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2024 (Doha, Qatar). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 113, pp. 195-199. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. The rate of sea-level rise (SLR) along the Qatar coast has been analyzed using altimetry observations of sea level from Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) data for the period 1993-2023. The climate model projections of sea level (SL) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are also used in the analysis. Our analysis shows that sea level is rising throughout the Qatar coastal region. Regional differences are noticed in the rate of SLR, with values ranging from 3.48 mm/year at north to 4.52 mm/year at south of Qatar. The southwest region, witnessing the higher rate, may be experiencing compound effects from local hydrodynamic conditions, which can exacerbate the perceived rate of SLR. Considerable interannual variations are observed in the annual mean sea level. A relatively moderate rate of SLR is noticed in future projection based on multi-model mean. However, a closer look at individual model outputs reveals significant variability, for example, the NorESM model projects the highest rate of SLR at 2.39 mm/year. This variability underscores the complexity of predicting SLR in regional settings, where local factors such water salinity, and regional current changes might influence outcomes significantly.