Closing Price Prediction for the NIFTY 50 Index: A Univariate Analysis using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques

The stock market in India, facilitated by the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), is a hub of economic activity, with the NIFTY 50 index serving as a key indicator of market performance. The NIFTY 50 index, which comprises the top 50 equity stocks across twelve major economic sectors, is crucial for investors and traders making informed decisions. This research paper focuses on predicting the trends of the NIFTY 50 index, specifically examining the closing prices over time. By employing statistical (ARIMA and Facebook Prophet) and deep learning approaches (LSTM, GRU, and Transformers), the study aims to provide accurate forecasts that can aid in risk management, corporate decision-making, and economic analysis. The findings underscore the importance of precise trend predictions in enhancing the efficiency of financial operations within the Indian stock market. Based on the experiments conducted, the ARIMA model outperformed Facebook Prophet in fitting values, while LSTM achieved the lowest RMSE, surpassing GRU and Transformers in prediction accuracy.